In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic unleashed the worst economic crisis in decades, with a severely damaging impact on working time and income. Although the global economy started to rebound in 2021, waves of spreading COVID-19 infections together with rising inflation, major supply chain disruptions, policy uncertainties, and unsustainable debt of developing countries caused the global economy to slow down at the end of 2021. The conflict in Ukraine is expected to seriously set back global economic growth in 2022.
Following an increase of about 1.4 percent in 2019, global real GDP per capita decreased sharply by 4.4 percent in 2020. Global real GDP per capita is estimated to have rebounded at a growth rate of 4.4 percent in 2021 and is projected to increase again by 3.0 percent in 2022 and 2.5 percent in 2023 based on pre-war estimations. The war in Ukraine is likely to downgrade global growth. The real GDP of least developed countries had increased by 5.0 percent in 2019 but showed no growth in 2020 because of the disruption caused by the pandemic.
The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in unprecedented, volatile developments in labor productivity levels. Globally, output per worker grew at an average annual rate of 1.6 percent between 2015 and 2019. In 2020, the output per worker dropped by 0.6 percent, the first such decline since 2009. Global labor productivity rebounded sharply in 2021, rising by 3.2 percent. 86. Prior to the onset of the pandemic, informal employment represented 60.2 percent of global employment in 2019. COVID-19 pandemic containment measures and mobility restrictions prevented labor reallocation to informal employment. Rather than become unemployed or shift to informal jobs, as in previous crises, laid-off employees and self-employed workers alike left the labor force. A disproportionate impact on informal workers was reflected in a decline in the informal employment rate in some countries at the height of the crisis, which has left informal workers and their families in a highly precarious position, exposed to sudden income losses and heightened risks of falling into poverty.
Equal treatment in employment is part and parcel of decent work. Globally women continue to be paid 19 percent less than men according to an International Labour Organization (ILO) 2018/2019 study. In 87 percent of countries with recent data, professionals earn per hour on average more than double what workers in elementary occupations earn.
In 2021, the global unemployment rate declined slightly to 6.2 percent, which is still well above the pre-pandemic rate of 5.4 percent. ILO projects that unemployment will remain above its 2019 level until at least 2023. Meanwhile, the level of unemployment underestimates the full employment impact of the crisis since many who left the labor force have not come back nor does it reflect the reduction in working hours for those who remained employed. In 2021, 4.3 percent of global working hours were lost compared with the fourth quarter of 2019, which is equivalent to a deficit of 125 million full-time jobs (assuming a 48‑hour working week).
The proportion of the world’s youth not in education, employment, or training (NEET) is now at its highest level since 2005. The NEET rate remained unchanged from 2015 to 2019 at 21.8 percent but increased to 23.3 percent in 2020, representing an addition of almost 20 million youth. Although youth represented only 13 percent of total employment before the crisis, they made up 34.2 percent of the 2020 decline in employment. Meanwhile, both technical and vocational education and on-the-job training suffered massive disruption, forcing many young people to quit their studies.
Latest estimates indicate that the number of children in child labor rose to 160 million (63 million girls and 97 million boys) worldwide at the beginning of 2020, representing an increase of 8.4 million children in the last four years and translating into almost 1 in 10 of all children in child labor worldwide.
Global GDP from tourism nearly halved between 2019 and 2020 and the sector faced its worst crisis in recent history, with businesses, employment, and livelihoods around the world severely impacted. After a marked positive trend over the past decade and reaching $3.4 trillion in 2019 or 4 percent of global GDP, the economic contribution of tourism plummeted to $1.8 trillion or 2.3 percent of world GDP in 2020.
Access to finance has continued to rise worldwide since 2015, with new modes of access playing an increasingly important role in more recent years. Globally, the number of ATMs per 100,000 adults grew from 65.3 in 2015 to 67.3 in 2020. By contrast, the number of commercial bank branches per 100,000 decreased slightly from 15.2 in 2015 to 14.4 in 2020. The COVID-19 pandemic seems to have further reinforced the use of digital modes of financial access, whereas both indicators declined globally and in most regions from 2019 to 2020.
The development and implementation of national youth employment strategies are increasing across most regions. Out of 81 countries reporting in 2021, more than half have operationalized such strategies, while slightly less than one-third have developed one but did not provide conclusive evidence of implementation